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	<pubDate>Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:07:02 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>How many.</title>
		<link>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/07/23/how-many/</link>
		<comments>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/07/23/how-many/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:03:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Davies Town</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Random]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[WM]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://daviestown.com/blog/?p=116</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I haven&#8217;t posted anything in quite a while.. So I decided to post a fun game:
How many words do you NOT fully understand in this article? I&#8217;ve highlighted words that may give you trouble.
AP
Washington Mutual posts 2Q loss of $3.3 billion
Wednesday July 23, 1:24 am ET
By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer







Little cheer for Washington Mutual [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I haven&#8217;t posted anything in quite a while.. So I decided to post a fun game:</p>
<p>How many words do you NOT fully understand in this article? I&#8217;ve highlighted words that may give you trouble.</p>
<p><big class="pr"><strong>AP</strong></big><br />
<span class="t">Washington Mutual posts 2Q loss of $3.3 billion</span><br />
<span class="tt">Wednesday July 23, 1:24 am ET</span><br />
<span class="au">By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer</span></p>
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<p><span class="t2">Little cheer for Washington Mutual as it</span> posts 2nd-quarter loss of more than $3 billion NEW YORK (AP) &#8212; Washington Mutual, the Seattle-based bank known for its buoyant advertising slogan, &#8220;Whoo hoo!,&#8221; had little to cheer about as it reported a staggering $3 billion loss &#8212; the biggest quarterly loss in its history.</p>
<p>The nation&#8217;s largest savings and loan increased its <span style="color: #ff6600;">loss reserves</span> to more than $8 billion to cover souring loans in its mortgage portfolio.</p>
<p>The bank also said Tuesday it will be cutting up to $1 billion in expenses by the end of 2009.</p>
<p>For the April to June period, WaMu reported a loss of $3.33 billion, or $6.58 per share, compared with a profit of $830 million, or 92 cents per share, in the year-ago period.</p>
<p>Results include a previously disclosed, one-time reduction of $3.24 per share related to the company&#8217;s $7.2 billion capital raise in April. Excluding the reduction, the loss per share was $3.34.</p>
<p>Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected a loss of $1.05 per share. Analyst estimates typically exclude one-time, unusual charges.</p>
<p>WaMu&#8217;s total <span style="color: #ff6600;">loan-loss reserves</span> increased by $3.74 billion to $8.46 billion, as it set aside a total of $5.91 billion during the quarter to cover <span style="color: #ff6600;">bad loans</span>. The increase in <span style="color: #ff6600;">loan-loss provision</span> reflects falling home prices, increased <span style="color: #ff6600;">delinquencies</span>, reduced <span style="color: #ff6600;">availability of credit</span> and the weakening economy, the bank said.</p>
<p>Total <span style="color: #ff6600;">net charge-offs</span>, or loans written off as unpaid, increased to $2.17 billion, while <span style="color: #ff6600;">nonperforming assets</span> grew to 3.62 percent of total assets as of June 30, from 2.87 percent at the end of the first quarter.</p>
<p>The company now expects cumulative losses in its <span style="color: #ff6600;">residential mortgage portfolio</span> to total $19 billion, the high end of previous guidance, and said 2008 will be the peak year for <span style="color: #ff6600;">provisioning</span>.</p>
<p>In response to worsening <span style="color: #ff6600;">credit trends</span>, WaMu shortened the time used to evaluate <span style="color: #ff6600;">default frequencies</span> in its <span style="color: #ff6600;">prime mortgage portfolio</span> to a one-year period from a three-year period, which is reflected in the increased provision.</p>
<p>WaMu said the fastest rising delinquencies were among its <span style="color: #ff6600;">&#8220;option&#8221; adjustable rate mortgage loans</span>. The bank stopped <span style="color: #ff6600;">originating</span> the <span style="color: #ff6600;">negative amortizing loans</span>, also called option ARM loans, in June. Option ARM loans offer very low introductory payments and let borrowers defer some interest payments until later years.</p>
<p>Early stage delinquencies for the <span style="color: #ff6600;">subprime </span>and <span style="color: #ff6600;">home equity portfolios</span>, however, showed signs of stabilization, the bank said.</p>
<p>Net interest income, or income generated from loans and deposits, rose 13 percent to $2.3 billion from $2.03 billion. Noninterest income, or income generated from fees and other charges, dropped 68 percent to $561 million from $1.76 billion in the same quarter last year, due in part to the company&#8217;s exit from <span style="color: #ff6600;">wholesale lending</span> and the closing of its <span style="color: #ff6600;">home loan centers</span>.</p>
<p>During the quarter, WaMu announced plans to exit the wholesale lending business and close all remaining <span style="color: #ff6600;">standalone home loan centers</span>, resulting in 3,000 job losses. The bank said it would instead focus its mortgage-originating efforts in its retail bank branches and Web site, and by expanding its call center operations. WaMu announced an additional 1,200 job cuts in June.</p>
<p>The bank earlier this year also slashed its quarterly dividend to 1 cent from 15 cents, which will result in savings of about $490 million a year.</p>
<p>In total, WaMu expects these and other cost-cutting initiatives to result in annualized cost savings of $1 billion by the end of 2009. The company will record total restructuring costs of about $450 million, $207 million of which was recorded in the second quarter.</p>
<p>Steve Rotella, president and chief operating officer, said some of the cost-cutting actions initiated during the quarter will play out over the course of the year and into 2009. Rotella said WaMu continues to evaluate ways to increase productivity, but he would not comment on whether that includes additional jobs cuts.</p>
<p>WaMu ended the quarter with more than $40 billion of <span style="color: #ff6600;">readily available liquidity</span>, and its <span style="color: #ff6600;">capital ratio</span> increased to 7.79 percent, up from 6.40 percent in the first quarter.</p>
<p>As a result, WaMu said it has <span style="color: #ff6600;">sufficient capital</span> to ride out the remainder of the <span style="color: #ff6600;">credit crunch</span> and does not anticipate raising additional capital going forward.</p>
<p>WaMu became one of the first retail banks to seek outside cash in the wake of the <span style="color: #ff6600;">credit crisis</span> when it agreed to <span style="color: #ff6600;">sell equity securities</span> to an investment fund managed by TPG Capital and to other investors this spring, raising $7.2 billion in fresh capital.</p>
<p>&#8220;We think they are taking the right action in strengthening operations and reducing costs and supporting the franchise,&#8221; said Owen Blicksilver, a spokesman for TPG. &#8220;The losses they reported today were in line with what TPG expected when it did its <span style="color: #ff6600;">underwriting for the investment</span>.&#8221;</p>
<p>Late Tuesday, Moody&#8217;s Investors Service put WaMu&#8217;s <span style="color: #ff6600;">senior unsecured rating of &#8220;Baa3&#8243;</span> on review for possible downgrade. A rating of <span style="color: #ff6600;">&#8220;Baa3&#8243;</span> is one notch above <span style="color: #ff6600;">junk status</span>.</p>
<p>&#8220;Though <span style="color: #ff6600;">liquidity </span>remains sufficient, WaMu experienced some declines in its <span style="color: #ff6600;">commercial and brokered institutional deposit balances</span> in the second quarter of 2008,&#8221; Moody&#8217;s said. &#8220;This reduced financial flexibility makes it more difficult for the company to successfully navigate through unanticipated events.&#8221;</p>
<p>Stephanie Hall, senior analyst at Gradient Analytics, viewed the <span style="color: #ff6600;">reserve build-up</span> as a positive. &#8220;The firm has been extremely slow in provisioning for loan losses,&#8221; she said, adding that she expects the company to report additional provisions in the third and fourth quarters, but likely smaller than those in the first half.</p>
<p>WaMu shares surged in afternoon trading ahead of the earnings report, rising 34 cents, or 6.2 percent, to close at $5.82. Its shares fell in <span style="color: #ff6600;">aftermarket </span>trading, shedding 24 cents, or 4.1 percent, to $5.58. They are down about 57 percent for the year.</p>
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		<title>Bernanke, Trichet, Shirakawa on Inflation, Rates, Dollar</title>
		<link>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/06/03/bernanke-trichet-shirakawa-on-inflation-rates-dollar/</link>
		<comments>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/06/03/bernanke-trichet-shirakawa-on-inflation-rates-dollar/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 22:53:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Davies Town</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Bloomberg]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://daviestown.com/blog/?p=115</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yet another Bloomberg featured post! =)
Here, I will take notes while watching the video. I have separated the notes based on the &#8220;timeline breakdown&#8221; on the Bloomberg article. The notes are below the article. Here is the article.
&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;
Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: 2008-06-03 17:55:24
Bernanke, Trichet, Shirakawa on Inflation, Rates, Dollar: Video
     June 3 (Bloomberg) &#8212; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yet another Bloomberg featured post! =)</p>
<p>Here, I will take notes while watching the video. I have separated the notes based on the &#8220;timeline breakdown&#8221; on the Bloomberg article. The notes are below the article. Here is the article.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: 2008-06-03 17:55:24<br />
Bernanke, Trichet, Shirakawa on Inflation, Rates, Dollar: Video</p>
<p>     June 3 (Bloomberg) &#8212; Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, European<br />
Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki<br />
Shirakawa and Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Fernandez Ordonez speak about the<br />
outlook for inflation risks, monetary policy and global economic growth. They<br />
speak at the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona. Bernanke and<br />
Shirakawa speak via satellite. Josef Ackermann, chief executive officer of<br />
Deutsche Bank AG, moderates. (Source: IMC/Bloomberg)</p>
<p>00:00:00 Bernanke: economic &#8220;strain&#8221; on markets<br />
00:01:15 Bernanke: U.S. housing, credit markets<br />
00:05:13 Bernanke on regulatory action to curb turmoil<br />
00:06:19 Bernanke: subprime loans, &#8220;vulnerable&#8221; to oil<br />
00:09:17 Bernanke: growth outlook, risks and demand<br />
00:11:24 Bernanke: inflation risks, commodity prices<br />
00:12:55 Bernanke: Fed mandate, acted &#8220;proactively&#8221;<br />
00:13:51 Bernanke: &#8220;attentive&#8221; to weak dollar effect<br />
00:14:49 Bernanke: efforts to boost market liquidity<br />
00:16:45 Ordonez: Spain&#8217;s economy, banks and risks<br />
00:27:48 Shirakawa: global economy, inflation pressure<br />
00:29:14 Shirakawa: Japan economy, business sentiment<br />
00:30:25 Shirakawa: exports, economic &#8220;resilience&#8221;<br />
00:32:04 Shirakawa: inflation risks, growth outlook<br />
00:33:28 Shirakawa: BOJ&#8217;s &#8220;accommodative&#8221; policy<br />
00:34:24 Shirakawa: Japan&#8217;s financial markets<br />
00:37:20 Trichet on commodity prices, food costs<br />
00:44:53 Trichet: &#8220;firmly focused&#8221; on price stability<br />
00:47:49 Trichet: credit crunch, liquidity injection<br />
00:51:44 Trichet on cooperation between central banks<br />
00:53:26 Questions: Trichet on Europe bank supervision<br />
00:59:06 Shirakawa: asset prices and monetary policy<br />
01:02:57 Ordonez discusses Spanish banking system.<br />
01:04:23 Bernanke: assessing asset &#8220;bubbles&#8221;<br />
01:08:01 Bernanke: need to strengthen financial system<br />
01:16:59 Trichet, Bernanke on oil and trade &#8220;shocks&#8221;</p>
<p>     To watch this report now, click {1 &lt;GO&gt;}. For more Bloomberg audio or<br />
video reports see {AV &lt;GO&gt;}. &#8212; Bloomberg Multimedia +44-20-7330-7180 (Chris<br />
Hewitt/Sen)</p>
<p>Running time 01:22:33</p>
<p>Jun/03/2008 17:55 GMT</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Here are my notes:</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>00:00:00 Bernanke: economic &#8220;strain&#8221; on markets<br />
</strong>- financial markets in US + other industrial countries = strain<br />
- issue: cost and availability of credit<br />
- most discussion of problems are regarding financial instruments<br />
- in retrospect, turmoil has been sometime in the making<br />
- severity of stress apparent in August 2007<br />
- several longer term developments have served as prologue</p>
<p><strong>00:01:15 Bernanke: U.S. housing, credit markets</strong><br />
- housing boom (began in mid 1990s and picked up steam in 2000)<br />
 - between 2000-2005, house pricing increased 60%<br />
 - starting in 2006, boom turn to bust<br />
 - over past two years building activity fallen in half<br />
- broad credit boom (lenders/investors took credit risk even though risk premiums contract)<br />
 - explosive growth of subprime credit lending over the past two years<br />
 - responsible sumprime lending is good to achieve social goals<br />
 - but most of 2005, 2006 subprime credit lending was not responsible lending<br />
- emerging market growth - double edged sword<br />
 - PRO: low prices imports help inflation<br />
 - PRO: increased demand for US goods help offset<br />
 - CON: however, strain on resources has increased commodity prices<br />
- net supply of saving increased<br />
 - rapid growth of high saving asian countries<br />
 - high profits in oil countries<br />
 - led to lower long term interest rates for world<br />
 - US received most of these flows<br />
 - which = good, provided they invested inflows wisely<br />
 - however, it created questionable practices</p>
<p><strong>00:05:13 Bernanke on regulatory action to curb turmoil</strong><br />
- example: new guidance on non-traditional mortgage/real estate lending<br />
- fed reserve encouraged improvements for risk management practice (for derivatives, etc)<br />
- despite these measures, financial companies failed to manage risk properly</p>
<p><strong>00:06:19 Bernanke: subprime loans, &#8220;vulnerable&#8221; to oil</strong><br />
- housing boom ended because rising prices make buy house unaffordable<br />
- this increase undermined Adjustable Rate Mortgages<br />
- ended the preconception that you can lend more and more as your house appreciates more and more<br />
- when this proved to fail, investors took their money out<br />
- this forced credit rators to downgrade<br />
- this reversed investors sentiment<br />
- this affected Asset Back Securities and a variety of other structured products<br />
- fortunately, most financial companies were in good financial position when it started<br />
- some able to raise new capital<br />
- reveals weaknesses in risk management</p>
<p><span style="color: #ff9900;"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>00:09:17 Bernanke: growth outlook, risks and demand</strong><br />
</span>- functioning of financial markets have improved<br />
- some borrowers, highly rated corporations, retain good access to credit<br />
- some areas generally restricted &#8212; real estate<br />
- residential construction retract<br />
- consumer spending has held up<br />
 - but face lots of headwinds<br />
- business face rapidly increasing cost of materials<br />
- overall economic growth = slow but position<br />
- activity for current quarter should be relatively weak<br />
- reflecting stimulus<br />
- reduced drag from construction market<br />
- solid demand from abroad<br />
- improved financial markets<br />
- UNTIL housing market (and particularly house prices) shows significant signs in stabilization, growth risk remain to downside</span></p>
<p><strong>00:11:24 Bernanke: inflation risks, commodity prices</strong><br />
- inflation = high reflect rising commodity prices<br />
<span style="color: #ff9900;">- futures markets continue to predict (albeit w/ uncertainty) that commodity prices will level out<br />
- prices of number of commodities have continued up even though dollar and expectations has remained stable</span><br />
- possibility of continued rise in inflation is risk to inflation forecasts<br />
<span style="color: #ff9900;">- high headline inflation, if sustained, may lead the public to expect higher rates in future (self-fulfilling prophecy)</span></p>
<p><strong>00:12:55 Bernanke: Fed mandate, acted &#8220;proactively&#8221;</strong><br />
- fed mandate =&gt; max employment with price stability<br />
- to achieve &#8212; must support concerns of market&#8217;<br />
- fed thinks gradual rate reduction would not have been enough</p>
<p><strong>00:13:51 Bernanke: &#8220;attentive&#8221; to weak dollar effect</strong><br />
- FED carefully monitor FOREX markets<br />
- FED is attentive to inflation and inflation expectations</p>
<p><strong>00:14:49 Bernanke: efforts to boost market liquidity</strong><br />
- to improve market liquidity<br />
- FED&#8230;<br />
- has allowed access to central bank&#8217;s liquidity<br />
- help promote ordily resolution of market dislocations<br />
- has coordinated with other central banks to ensure everything is well<br />
- takes the regulatory role to put changes in place to increase transparency and resilience</p>
<p><strong>00:16:45 Ordonez: Spain&#8217;s economy, banks and risks<br />
</strong>- Economic develpments = show some slowdown<br />
- slowdown preceded recent turmoil (in 2005)<br />
- slowdown eroded consumer confidence<br />
- seen signs that credit conditions are tightening<br />
- expect internal demand to continue weakening over 2008<br />
- seeing sharp increases in headline inflation<br />
- spanish economy more vulnerable to second round effects<br />
- how firms and consumers deal with shocks<br />
 - should not believe shocks are permanent<br />
 - should not believe wage increase demands expect to stop inflation<br />
- fiscal policy in Spain is sound<br />
- Debt to GDP in Spain = ~35%<br />
- pretty good<br />
- Financial Sector in Spain<br />
- impact has been limited (low exposure to main problems)<br />
- STOPPED NOTES ON SPAIN SINCE HE ONLY TALKS ABOUT SPAIN (i&#8217;m not interested in Spain but I&#8217;m listening)<br />
- Bottom Line: Spain was not affected and they&#8217;re alright.</p>
<p><strong>00:27:48 Shirakawa: global economy, inflation pressure</strong><br />
- Japan&#8217;s economy<br />
- comments on slowing growth on advanced economies<br />
- greater inflation pressures<br />
- difficulty balance act of sustained growth and inflation</p>
<p><strong>00:29:14 Shirakawa: Japan economy, business sentiment</strong><br />
- japan&#8217;s economy is slowing due to deteriotation terms of trade from higher import prices<br />
- higher commodity prices<br />
- business sentiment = cautious<br />
- these are expected to stay for some while<br />
- expect to have growth in Japan near potential over 1-2 years</p>
<p><strong>00:30:25 Shirakawa: exports, economic &#8220;resilience&#8221;</strong><br />
- Japan&#8217;s exports will continue to be robust<br />
- Although US slow, more than offset from resource rich countries and emerging economies<br />
- Has also offset weaker terms of trade effects<br />
- Japan&#8217;s financial sectors are healthy</p>
<p><strong>00:32:04 Shirakawa: inflation risks, growth outlook</strong><br />
- Core inflation = 1%-1.2% highest in almost 15 years except in 1998<br />
- CPI inflation projection 1.0% for 2008, 2009<br />
- Monitoring how general inflation expectation is changing<br />
- Growth expect to the downside<br />
- Prices expect to the upside</p>
<p><strong>00:33:28 Shirakawa: BOJ&#8217;s &#8220;accommodative&#8221; policy</strong><br />
- Will try to ensure price stability</p>
<p><strong>00:34:24 Shirakawa: Japan&#8217;s financial markets</strong><br />
- Japan&#8217;s Financial markets are good<br />
- Spreads are tight<br />
- Reason? Low exposure to structured products<br />
- BoJ is good for three reasons (.. left for you to hear on the video)</p>
<p><strong>00:37:20 Trichet on commodity prices, food costs</strong><br />
- capital changing investments instead of investments changing capital<br />
- science and tech making excellent progress<br />
<span style="color: #ff9900;">- commodity prices &#8212; drivers?<br />
 - man is accustommming itself with the limited resources and liimited capacities of disposal land<br />
 - improving living standards has put pressure in food prices<br />
 - china&#8217;s diet has doubled in cost<br />
 - growth in emerging economies have also pushed up energy prices<br />
 - also has prompted alternative fuels - which has helped increased food prices</span><br />
- pressure of global commodity prices are one of many factors affecting globalization<br />
- a very multidimensional nature of this problem</p>
<p><strong>00:44:53 Trichet: &#8220;firmly focused&#8221; on price stability</strong><br />
<span style="color: #ff9900;">- inflation = monetary phenomenon in long term<br />
- monetary policy should stay focused on price stability<br />
- price stability over the medium term is necessary for sustainable growth</span></p>
<p><strong>00:47:49 Trichet: credit crunch, liquidity injection</strong><br />
- OMO continue to try to smooth the functioning of commercial banks<br />
- avg level of short-term rates has remained close to the minimum rate</p>
<p><strong>00:51:44 Trichet on cooperation between central banks</strong><br />
- intimate cooperate and discussion with US and Swiss National Bank<br />
- could provide, thanks to fed, US dollar liquidity in Europe<br />
- important to understand the shocks and their relations is vital</p>
<p><strong>00:53:26 Questions: Trichet on Europe bank supervision</strong><br />
- discuss: banks NOT too big to fail, but too INTERCONNECTED to fail<br />
- lessons to do from financial sector view + economic policy view?<br />
- Bubbles? How to detect?<br />
&#8212; TRICHET&#8212;<br />
** too convoluted to understand and type up notes =\</p>
<p><strong>00:59:06 Shirakawa: asset prices and monetary policy</strong><br />
- asset prices contain valuable information for central banks<br />
- in retrospect Japan&#8217;s inflation was quite subdued, even during bubble<br />
- when bubble burst, it went down even more<br />
- &#8220;we succeeded in maintaining price stability&#8221;<br />
- why no deflation spiral? Because BoJ was able to act as a lender of last resort</p>
<p><strong>01:02:57 Ordonez discusses Spanish banking system.</strong><br />
- &#8230;</p>
<p><strong>01:04:23 Bernanke: assessing asset &#8220;bubbles&#8221;</strong><br />
- the experience of asset bubbles suggests we need to look into these issues<br />
- skeptical about pricking bubbles<br />
- how able to attack only bubbles through?<br />
- how will bubble pop? BOOM? nice slow pop? what are effects on other industries?<br />
- should look into further but doubt monetary policy could be effective<br />
- work towards increasing resilience of financial system<br />
- reduce sensitivity of financial system<br />
- besides supervision and regulation (capital requirements/liquidity/risk management), should look infrastructure, transparency, party risk .. and other examples mentioned<br />
- very central question<br />
- but also very difficult question to resolve in the future</p>
<p><strong>01:08:01 Bernanke: need to strengthen financial system</strong><br />
- financial system needs to be strong and ready to deal with stress<br />
- must have adequate capital, liquity, and risk management systems<br />
- currently, FED Reserve is working with SEC<br />
- thinking about how to go forward<br />
- it will be necessary that all significant institutions have the appropriate strengths to survive the financial stress<br />
<span style="color: #ff9900;">&#8212;DUBLIN question person: extent of concern with weakness of dollar, implications, and increase of oil price<br />
- weakening of dollar has had some inflation impact<br />
- some impact on commodity prices<br />
- main factor = global supply and demand<br />
- many growing countries<br />
- limitations in supply due to inadequate investment, technology, and geopolitical problems<br />
- even though oil go above $130, dollar pretty stable during then<br />
- everything equal, if dollar goes down, commodities go up (to cancel the effects)<br />
- US is significant importer of Oil<br />
- current accont and trade deficit<br />
- extent that oil and other commodities price rise, it will have adverse effects on balance of trade and lower dollar</span></p>
<p><strong>01:16:59 Trichet, Bernanke on oil and trade &#8220;shocks&#8221;</strong><br />
- how are your central banks responding to what seems to be a large ongoing trade shock?<br />
- what are reasonable inflation objectives in short and medium term?<br />
- TRICHET:<br />
- no weaponary to prevent shock<br />
- BERNANKE:<br />
- terms of trade shock (two dimensions)<br />
- 1. change in commodity prices relative to US goods and services<br />
- 2. longer term trade adjustment is the unwinding appreciation of the dollar to restore global balance of current account situation<br />
- effects on living standards, prices and inflation (on short term)</p>
<p> </p>
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		<title>Bloomberg: Wall Street Says -2 + -2 = 4 as Liabilities Get New Bond Math</title>
		<link>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/06/02/bloomberg-wall-street-says-2-2-4-as-liabilities-get-new-bond-math/</link>
		<comments>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/06/02/bloomberg-wall-street-says-2-2-4-as-liabilities-get-new-bond-math/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jun 2008 18:54:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Davies Town</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Bloomberg]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Analysis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://daviestown.com/blog/?p=114</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After reading this story, a few thoughts come to mind:
WHOOPS, the guys at FASB didn&#8217;t really think things through
or maybe they were persuaded by the big investment banks a little too much from their lobbying efforts&#8230;
This is gonna make financial companies less transparent when looking just at their books&#8230;&#124;
This will give the edge to hardcore [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After reading this story, a few thoughts come to mind:</p>
<p>WHOOPS, the guys at FASB didn&#8217;t really think things through<br />
or maybe they were persuaded by the big investment banks a little too much from their lobbying efforts&#8230;</p>
<p>This is gonna make financial companies less transparent when looking just at their books&#8230;|<br />
This will give the edge to hardcore investors but will give the regular investor yet ANOTHER barrier</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;Here&#8217;s the story&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: 2008-06-01 23:01:00<br />
Wall Street Says -2 + -2 = 4 as Liabilities Get New Bond Math<br />
By Bradley Keoun<br />
June 2 (Bloomberg) &#8212; Leave it to Wall Street to profit from<br />
its own distress.<br />
Merrill Lynch &amp; Co., Citigroup Inc. and four other U.S.<br />
financial companies have used an accounting rule adopted last year<br />
to book almost $12 billion of revenue after a decline in prices of<br />
their own bonds. <span style="color: #ff6600;">The rule, intended to expand the &#8220;mark-to-<br />
market&#8221; accounting that banks use to record profits or losses on<br />
trading assets, allows them to report gains when market prices for<br />
their liabilities fall.</span><br />
The new math, while legal, defies common sense. Merrill, the<br />
third-biggest U.S. securities firm, added $4 billion of revenue<br />
during the past three quarters as the market value of its debt<br />
fell. That was the result of higher yields demanded by investors<br />
spooked by the New York-based company&#8217;s $37 billion of writedowns<br />
from assets hurt by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.<br />
&#8220;They can post substantial gains as a result of a decline in<br />
their own creditworthiness,&#8221; said James Cataldo, a former<br />
director of treasury risk management for the Federal Home Loan<br />
Bank of Boston and now an assistant professor of accounting at<br />
Suffolk University in Boston. &#8220;It&#8217;s completely legitimate, but it<br />
doesn&#8217;t make sense by any way we currently have of thinking of net<br />
income.&#8221;<br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;"> The paper profits have helped offset more than $160 billion<br />
of writedowns taken by U.S. financial-services companies during<br />
the past year.</span> Now some investors and analysts say the winnings<br />
are illusory and may have to be reversed.<br />
&#8220;The piper will have to be paid eventually,&#8221; said Robert<br />
Willens, a former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. accounting analyst<br />
who left the New York-based firm earlier this year to become an<br />
independent consultant.</p>
<p>Statement 159</p>
<p>The debate over what is known as Statement 159 adds to the<br />
number of accounting techniques called into question as the U.S.<br />
debt market unravels. Investors have criticized banks for booking<br />
some writedowns in an accounting category called &#8220;other<br />
comprehensive income&#8221; that bypasses their income statements.<br />
Accounting rulemakers are now proposing changes to standards that<br />
let banks use off-balance-sheet vehicles to juice earnings without<br />
tying up precious capital.<br />
Statement 159, formally known as the &#8220;Fair Value Option for<br />
Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities,&#8221; was issued in<br />
February 2007 by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, or<br />
FASB, which sets U.S. accounting rules. <span style="color: #ff6600;">It was adopted by most<br />
large Wall Street firms in the first quarter of last year and<br />
becomes mandatory for all U.S. companies this year, although they<br />
have wide latitude in how to apply it, if at all.</span></p>
<p>Lobbying Effort</p>
<p><span style="color: #ff6600;"> The rule was enacted after lobbying by New York-based<br />
companies, led by Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group<br />
Inc. and Citigroup, which wrote letters to FASB arguing that it<br />
wasn&#8217;t fair to make them mark their assets to market value if they<br />
couldn&#8217;t also mark their liabilities.</span><br />
&#8220;We do not believe it would be appropriate&#8221; to let<br />
investors consider creditworthiness when valuing bonds if the<br />
issuing company couldn&#8217;t do the same, wrote Matthew Schroeder,<br />
managing director of accounting policy at Goldman, the largest<br />
U.S. securities firm by market value, in an April 2006 letter.<br />
Companies are allowed to decide for themselves which of their<br />
outstanding bonds, loans and other liabilities will get mark-to-<br />
market treatment. That&#8217;s an unprecedented degree of leeway, said<br />
Willens, who is also an adjunct professor at Columbia University<br />
in New York.<br />
&#8220;It&#8217;s kind of a dumb rule,&#8221; Willens said. &#8220;In the entire<br />
panoply of accounting, this is the most flexible and elective and<br />
optional rule that we have.&#8221;</p>
<p><span style="color: #ff6600;"> The Fed Objects</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff6600;"> Here&#8217;s how it works, according to Richard Bove, an analyst at<br />
New York-based Ladenburg Thalmann &amp; Co. A company decides to<br />
designate $100 million of its subordinated bonds as subject to<br />
mark-to-market accounting. The price of the bonds drops to 80<br />
cents on the dollar from 100 cents. So the firm books $20 million<br />
on the &#8220;presumed savings that you have on your liabilities,&#8221;<br />
Bove said.<br />
&#8220;In the real world you didn&#8217;t save a dime,&#8221; he said. &#8220;You<br />
still owe the $100 million. It&#8217;s another one of these accounting<br />
rules that basically takes you further and further away from<br />
reality.&#8221;</span><br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;"> The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Office<br />
of the Comptroller of the Currency and Office of Thrift<br />
Supervision objected to the rule before its passage, saying in a<br />
joint 2006 letter to the FASB that it would &#8220;have the contrary<br />
effect&#8221; of increasing a bank&#8217;s net worth at the same time its<br />
&#8220;financial condition is deteriorating.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff6600;"> Split at FASB</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff6600;"> The regulators remain so skeptical that they refuse to let<br />
banks apply the phantom revenue toward minimum capital<br />
requirements, according to reporting rules posted on the Web site<br />
of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.</span> Deborah<br />
Lagomarsino, a Washington-based spokeswoman for the Federal<br />
Reserve, declined to comment.<br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;"> Not even the FASB was united on the new standard. </span>Two of its<br />
seven board members &#8212; Thomas Linsmeier and Donald Young &#8212; voted<br />
against it, according to the February 2007 statement. Linsmeier<br />
said the rule &#8220;will provide an opportunity for entities to report<br />
significantly less earnings volatility than they are exposed to,&#8221;<br />
according to the statement.<br />
The FASB tried to limit abuses by forcing companies to<br />
designate their &#8220;fair value&#8221; liabilities when they adopt the new<br />
standard. Subsequently, they can&#8217;t change their minds. Liabilities<br />
added after adoption can only be designated at inception.<br />
&#8220;The statement was thoroughly discussed with users and<br />
preparers&#8221; in advance of its publication, said Neal McGarity, a<br />
spokesman for Norwalk, Connecticut-based FASB. A March survey by<br />
the CFA Institute, a Charlottesville, Virginia-based group that<br />
administers a financial-analyst designation program, showed that<br />
74 percent of investors believe the standard &#8220;has improved market<br />
integrity,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>Merrill&#8217;s Liabilities</p>
<p>Merrill designated about $166 billion of liabilities, or 17<br />
percent of its total, as fair-value instruments subject to mark-<br />
to-market accounting at the end of 2007, according to its annual<br />
report. Included in the amount were $76.3 billion of long-term<br />
borrowings and $89.7 billion of payables under securities-<br />
financing transactions.<br />
Prices for the firm&#8217;s bonds tumbled over the past year: Its<br />
floating-rate notes due in January 2015 are trading at about 87<br />
cents on the dollar, compared with about 100 cents last June.<br />
Merrill has said its gains from the liabilities don&#8217;t add to<br />
true earnings power. In a spreadsheet posted on its Web site,<br />
Merrill says that investors who want a &#8220;more meaningful period-<br />
to-period comparison&#8221; should exclude the $2.1 billion of revenue<br />
recorded in the first quarter.<br />
Merrill spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim declined to comment.<br />
The company owns a passive 20 percent stake in Bloomberg LP, the<br />
parent of Bloomberg News.</p>
<p>Lehman to Goldman</p>
<p>Lehman, the fourth-biggest securities firm, has reported $1.9<br />
billion of gains related to a widening of its own bond spreads.<br />
Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank by assets, has booked $1.7<br />
billion; Morgan Stanley $1.7 billion; JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., the<br />
third-biggest bank, $1.7 billion; and Goldman Sachs $550 million.<br />
There may be more to come, JPMorgan analyst Kenneth<br />
Worthington wrote in a May 28 report. Lehman may book $325 million<br />
for the second fiscal quarter ended in May, and Morgan Stanley,<br />
the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, may report $470 million,<br />
Worthington estimates.<br />
Spokesmen for Lehman, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Citigroup and<br />
JPMorgan in New York declined to comment.</p>
<p><span style="color: #ff6600;"> `Shell Game&#8217;</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff6600;"></span><br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;"> &#8220;No one&#8217;s going out in the market and actually retiring this</span><span style="color: #ff6600;"> So far, most banks&#8217; writedowns are &#8220;unrealized,&#8221; meaning<br />
they&#8217;ve been unwilling or unable to liquidate distressed assets.<br />
If prices reversed, the banks would record mark-to-market profits.<br />
The same is true for the liabilities. Companies can&#8217;t<br />
&#8220;realize&#8221; the mark-to-market gains on their debt unless they buy<br />
it back at the discounted price. They&#8217;re unlikely to do so,<br />
because the deterioration in creditworthiness means they&#8217;d have to<br />
replace the debt with higher-cost borrowings, Willens said.</span><br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;"> debt,&#8221; Willens said. &#8220;It&#8217;s a shell game.&#8221;</span><br />
David Moser, Merrill&#8217;s managing director for accounting<br />
policy, acknowledged that concern in an April 10, 2006, letter to<br />
the FASB.<br />
&#8220;It seems counterintuitive that when a company&#8217;s credit<br />
spreads are widening, it would recognize a gain in earnings,&#8221;<br />
Moser wrote. &#8220;The amounts are typically not realizable and<br />
therefore less relevant.&#8221;<br />
He nevertheless supported the new accounting standard because<br />
it &#8220;mitigates some of the uneconomic volatility in earnings&#8221;<br />
that results from marking assets to market without doing the same<br />
for liabilities.</p>
<p>Market Reversal</p>
<p>Bear Stearns Cos., which adopted the new standard this year,<br />
reported a $305 million windfall in the fiscal first quarter,<br />
which ended in February, as bond spreads widened on concerns the<br />
company might face a funding shortage. Then in March, after the<br />
New York-based securities firm was forced to sell itself to<br />
JPMorgan, Bear Stearns&#8217;s bond spreads tightened, resulting in a<br />
$372 million loss, according to a regulatory filing in April.<br />
Worthington estimates that similar tightening of bond spreads<br />
at Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Lehman and Goldman Sachs may cause<br />
them to reverse $5.96 billion of revenue by the end of the year.<br />
&#8220;It could very well hurt earnings,&#8221; said Jeffery Harte, an<br />
analyst at Sandler O&#8217;Neill &amp; Partners LP in Chicago, in an<br />
interview. On the flip side, a recovery may result in asset write-<br />
ups, he said.<br />
<span style="color: #ff6600;"> Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s, which relies on banks&#8217; financial<br />
statements to issue credit ratings, said in April 2006 that the<br />
new rule might lead to &#8220;diminished analytical transparency.&#8221;<br />
&#8220;Equity may be overstated as a result of these illusory<br />
gains that may never be realized, hindering the analysis of the<br />
equity cushion to absorb losses,&#8221; S&amp;P Chief Accountant Neri<br />
Bukspan wrote in a letter to the FASB.</span><br />
If and when the &#8220;illusory&#8221; revenue is reversed as losses,<br />
the banks and brokers may have to work harder to convince<br />
investors to ignore them, Willens said.</p>
<p>For related news:<br />
Merrill earnings: MER US &lt;Equity&gt; TCNI ERN &lt;GO&gt;<br />
Top finance: FTOP &lt;GO&gt;<br />
Credit Market in Turmoil: EXTRA &lt;GO&gt;</p>
<p>&#8211;Editors: Robert Friedman, Tim Quinson.</p>
<p>To contact the reporter on this story:<br />
Bradley Keoun in New York at +1-212-617-2310 or<br />
<a href="mailto:bkeoun@bloomberg.net">bkeoun@bloomberg.net</a>.</p>
<p>To contact the editor responsible for this story:<br />
Otis Bilodeau at +1-212-617-3921 or<br />
<a href="mailto:obilodeau@bloomberg.net">obilodeau@bloomberg.net</a>.<br />
&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;====================&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<br />
Copyright (c) 2008, Bloomberg, L. P.</p>
<p>################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################</p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Guess who got Bloomberg Certified</title>
		<link>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/05/16/guess-who-got-bloomberg-certified/</link>
		<comments>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/05/16/guess-who-got-bloomberg-certified/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 May 2008 03:46:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Davies Town</dc:creator>
		
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://daviestown.com/blog/?p=113</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I DID!!! HURRAY!!~~
**On May 16th, 2008, Davies Town receives his Bloomberg Equity Certificate.**
Time to focus on my next thing.. Hmmmm&#8230; What should it be.. PETER LYNCH, ONE UP ON WALLSTREET!
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I DID!!! HURRAY!!~~</p>
<p>**On May 16th, 2008, Davies Town receives his Bloomberg Equity Certificate.**</p>
<p>Time to focus on my next thing.. Hmmmm&#8230; What should it be.. PETER LYNCH, ONE UP ON WALLSTREET!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Alisa Miller: Why we know less than ever about the world</title>
		<link>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/05/15/alisa-miller-why-we-know-less-than-ever-about-the-world/</link>
		<comments>http://daviestown.com/blog/2008/05/15/alisa-miller-why-we-know-less-than-ever-about-the-world/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 22:55:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Davies Town</dc:creator>
		
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		<category><![CDATA[Random]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://daviestown.com/blog/?p=112</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A nice and short 4 minute video of media coverage.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A nice and short 4 minute video of media coverage.</p>
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